Tipping’s Not as Simple as It Looks

One of the easiest things to do as a couch critic or keyboard warrior for that matter, is to always believe that you can do a better job than a racing tipster, writes Gary Lemke for GG Gaming.

Horse racing tipping is one of the toughest and thankless tasks in all of sport.

Consider this: in rugby there are three possible results, but in most cases only two as the draw is uncommon. In soccer there are also three possible outcomes, but the draw becomes a much livelier option. And therefore it’s a “three-horse race” as opposed to rugby’s “two-horse race”.

I have found over the years that if one can achieve a 55-60 percent winning ration in soccer you’ll end up in credit.

Now, racing. There are as many as 20 horses in one race.

The Vodacom Durban July had 18 horses go to the start and KOMMETDIEDING won at odds of 10-1. It was a popular selection and there were plenty of happy punters across the land. If they ran the race again tomorrow, I would still have gone for LINEBACKER and GOT THE GREENLIGHT to finish 1st and 2nd and recommended the exacta (1-2). The swinger was the bet of the year. They finished 2nd and 3rd, and those who took swingers would have made a profit.

I know though that my studying of form was just about spot on.

However, there’s no such thing as a racing certainty. There are so many things that can go wrong in a race, like DO IT AGAIN was hampered twice in the straight in the July. In every race an element of luck is required, and then there is the jockey to factor in and that the horse itself is made of flesh and blood and might not be feeling 100 percent when it wakes up in the morning. It can’t tell us that.

So, when we tip a horse and it doesn’t run up to expectation, us tipsters get ridiculed. But, run the race tomorrow and the result might be different. Then, tip a winner and the keyboard warrior will say, “any clown can tip a favourite”. Sure, but would you rather have a favourite who wins than an outsider who doesn’t win?

There’s a runner at Kenilworth on Saturday that I’m going to be backing and playing a lot of doubles across the card and into next week’s Champions Day meeting. If it loses, I’m going to have to cancel all those Takealot orders.

GEM KING is tipped by Computaform to finish second in the fourth race at Kenilworth but I can’t see him losing. He will start favourite, of that there is no doubt and the fact he’s owned by a man who has never been shy to put his money where his mouth is.

However, the manner in which he ran on when second on his debut over the same Kenilworth 1000m made me mark in my notebook, “next time – and then into his three-year-old career”. He’s from the unfashionable stable of Piet Steyn, but remember he and owners Marsh Shirtliff and Bryn Ressell teamed up with the now exported KATAK for Steyn.

I just loved the look of his debut and he came from eight lengths back at the 400m mark to go down by half a length. Sure, you can tell me that he’ll be a short-priced favourite and anyone can tip him, but at some stage you need to realise that a tipster does do homework and when they advise you to have a winning bet then they really are trying to help you.

Candice Bass-Robinson, whose stable is sponsored by GG Gaming, is still searching for her 100th winner before the end of the season (31st July) but will get over the line before then. She still needs four more winners for the milestone and rates HIGH MOON in race seven at Kenilworth as her best bet on the card.